by Raif Azoulay
Round 13 or Operation ‘Solid Lead’
The sirens haul anew throughout Gaza. Identical to the bell of a box match, its sound marks the beginning of hostilities and unleashes the fighters from their respective corners. The sirens seem to shout, ‘and here we go…Round 13′.
Suddenly the sirens mute and are replaced by the mind-numbing noise of fighter jet drones. Fighter jets are nothing new in Gaza. Ramy, an old friend, used to tell me that they were an integral part of the landscape. But this time it is different. With unprecedented strength today over sixty jets hit fifty targets killing over 200 Palestinians and injuring many more. According to Israel, the attacks came as a response to the ongoing rocket shelling on southern Israel, killing one and injuring four today.
Numbers don’t talk. However, those creating them do. In an interview with the Israeli Broadcasting Chanel Yossi Levy the Foreign Ministry’s spokesman for the Israeli media explained that Hamas was to face the responsibility for the many dead. He maintained that Israel was promoting human rights, which Hamas violated, and in an unprecedented effort (Annapolis) reached out to the Palestinians. Asked for a reaction to the numbers of casualities, he calmly replied that Gaza ‘is the densest place on earth’, carefully avoiding to reflect on how it became it. He further failed to mention that Gaza resembles rather a refugee camp than a city or region. The central point of his message was the need to promote a coherent message across the globe of an Israel fighting on behalf of the Palestinian and their rights – against the democratically elected tyrant which he sees in Hamas. Later in his speech to the nation, Olmert reiterated the points Levy made. Explicitly pointing out that he does not intend to fight the Palestinian people. The public was prepared for a prolonged fight. It seems Levy’s message already reached Olmert.
It is interesting to observe the media in the early hours of a conflict. The message that it is not Israels choice to fight and that Hamas brought this wrath upon themselves was repeated time after time. Ridicule examples were brought up, incoherent arguments, falsifications, omissions and possibly even lies.
A new reality and an ever newer one
Since the second Intifada only sporadic and local incursions have occurred in Gaza by the IDF. Hamas used this time effectively. Entering this round of clashes, the IDF is not fighting a terror organization anymore, but a well structured and disciplined para-military guerrilla. In the light of the events in Lebanon from 2006, Hamas improved its training facilities and has turned Gaza into a deadly mining field should Israeli ground forces decide to enter the strip. Hamas forces count fifteen thousand soldiers. Among them some thousand soldiers belonging to the Iz al-Din al-Qassam, the Palestinian ‘revolutionary guards’. It is predictable that Fatah, Hamas and the other factions will put their differences aside during the escalation.
Any violent military conflict entails tragedies. Nothing new under the sun.
However, the reasons why we fight are determinant. A deeper look at Israeli domestic politics could help shed some light on this incursion. While Prime Minister Olmert is preparing his suitcases, disconnected from reality, his possible successors all fall into strategic role games. According to any poll, at the current moment, opposition leader Netanyahu is set to win the elections. The disintegration of Ariel Sharon’s Kadima party seems inevitable, leaving two main protagonists of Israeli politics once again face to face. Labour vs. Likud.
It does not look good for Ehud Barak’s Labour party. These days he is exposed to a lot of pressure. In my opinion, Barak sees a crucial opportunity for himself in this conflict. He believes that he can show the public that he is a military mastermind and can provide the so cherished security to the Israeli society. The only chance for him to become PM again is to change reality in Gaza and southern Israel and he needs to do this quickly. I guess in his wildest dreams in two or three days he sees himself parading with the newly freed soldier Gilad Shalit. The timing of the ‘response’, in my opinion, reflects the understanding that with the presidential inauguration of Barack Obama pressure on Israel will rise. Change has come, and change scares Israel.
After all, no matter
One of the deadliest day in Gaza in 60 years of conflict
who the Israeli PM may be, Washington will set the tone for the future in the Middle East. While Netanyahu is hailed as a hard-liner able to defend Israel, people forgot that he was the PM who actually returned the biggest percentage of the occupied land. In any case, further escalation won’t bring the expected security. Not in the short-run and much less in the long-run.
As always, this conflict remains unpredictable. Whether Hizbollah will try to open a second front in the north and whether the sporadic uprises in the West Bank will turn into new large-scale revolts creating a third Intifada remains to be seen. In any case, the current events reveal once more the enormous disparities. During an entire month of shelling one Israeli was killed. In two hours over two hundred Palestinians. Truly, Goliath vs. David. The question therefore is; why does David keep standing up again?
